US Senate Nears Budget Agreement to End Prolonged Government Shutdown
The US Senate has reached a preliminary agreement on a three-part budget deal to end the record-long government shutdown, according to Politico. The forthcoming legislation has secured enough bipartisan support to move past the 60-vote filibuster threshold. The official Senate vote, required to finalize the deal, is still pending.
Uncertainty Weighs on Crypto Markets
Market participants have pointed to uncertainty about the government shutdown as a significant driver behind recent crypto market stagnation. Bitcoin rose to a new local high of $126,080 shortly after the shutdown began, but has since declined over 17% to $104,370, according to CoinGecko data.
The largest decline followed a statement from US President Donald Trump on October 10, announcing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. This policy announcement triggered double-digit percentage losses for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Historical Context and Market Reaction
The last US government shutdown lasted from December 2018 to January 2019. After the impasse ended on January 25, 2019, Bitcoin surged more than 265% over the next five months, rising from $3,550 to $13,000.
Market Sentiment and Betting Odds
Prediction markets currently show increased confidence that the shutdown will end soon. The probability of a resolution occurring between Tuesday and Friday stands at 54%, up from 27% a day earlier. On competitor platform Kalshi, markets reflect slightly lower but similar odds for an end to the shutdown by Friday, which would mark the 44th day of the impasse.
Potential Policy Impact
President Trump has also announced efforts to distribute payments from tariff revenue, with about 85% of US adults set to receive funds excluding high-income earners. These developments could further influence US market sentiment and, by extension, the broader crypto sector in the coming days.
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